Tropical Storm PAUL
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 3 19 45
TROP DEPRESSION 1 1 1 1 13 34 35
TROPICAL STORM 86 48 26 31 59 42 19
HURRICANE 13 51 73 68 26 5 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 12 43 49 41 21 4 1
HUR CAT 2 1 6 17 18 4 X X
HUR CAT 3 X 2 6 7 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 65KT 75KT 75KT 60KT 40KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 1(28)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 1(21)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 2 10(12) 48(60) 17(77) 3(80) X(80) X(80)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 22(22) 17(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI
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