Hurricane PAUL

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
...PAUL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.3N 114.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING AFTER THAT.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.  AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH...59 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNEDAY.
 
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
 
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