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Tropical Storm PAUL


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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...PAUL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.8N 115.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PAUL.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST.  PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH A NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.  ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL SHOULD BE OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND PAUL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEN CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN
BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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