Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 112.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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