Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 112.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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