Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 270SE 140SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 112.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
 
 
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