Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PAUL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.6N 114.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 114.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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