ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRIPPED AWAY DUE TO 30-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A ROBUST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTEX STILL EXISTS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT PAUL WAS NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ADT DATA-T VALUES...AND MICROWAVE WIND DATA. WIND RADII IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE ARE BASED ON A 17/0427Z ASCAT PARTIAL OVERPASS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/11 KT ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PAUL SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CROSSING THE BAJA SPUR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM MOVES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGER LOW-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 N MI SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH PAUL AND THE LARGER CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PAUL DISSIPATING OR BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 24C SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PAUL COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND TOTALLY DISSIPATE IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TRENDS OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 26.4N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0600Z 28.6N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 29.8N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:44 UTC