Tropical Storm PAUL

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CURVED BAND WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KT.
 
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ANALYSES INDICATE THAT
PAUL IS TITLED WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX
BECOMING BETTER VERTICALLY ALIGNED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE...AND BECAUSE PAUL IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE
MONDAY...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE TRACK. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND PAUL IS NOW
FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE FEATURES THAT ARE
STEERING PAUL ARE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CAUSING PAUL TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE WEAKENING STORM IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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