ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM PAUL. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC...WHICH SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS AROUND 30 KT. PAUL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE CHANGE IN HEADING...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN WHERE THE TURN TAKES PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCE AND TV15...BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PAUL TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW PAUL LOSING STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 14.1N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 14.9N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 26.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC