ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012 OLIVIA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM WHATEVER FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN. THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN. CONTINUED SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD...OR 220/6 KT...AROUND A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED TRADE WIND REGIME. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST STILL LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 09/1800Z 14.8N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 14.2N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC