ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OLIVIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOW A LITTLE LARGER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER NEAR THE CENTER. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED STRUCTURE...A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. OLIVIA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA BEGINNING TO TILT NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS... AND BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5. GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF OLIVIA HAS EITHER JUMPED OR REFORMED TO THE NORTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5. DESPITE THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION....AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.2N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.9N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 17.2N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.2N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 17.0N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 16.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC