Tropical Storm NORMAN
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 15 38 NA NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 15 49 37 NA NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 82 34 24 NA NA NA NA
HURRICANE 2 2 2 NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LA PAZ 34 7 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LORETO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HUATABAMPO 34 4 14(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
HUATABAMPO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 31 17(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
LOS MOCHIS 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CULICAN 34 59 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
CULICAN 50 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CULICAN 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAZATLAN 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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