ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LESS-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH NORMAN IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUASAVE MEXICO. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. NORMAN IS IN A RATHER HARSH ENVIRONMENT OF 30 TO 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS INDICATED ON THE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION IS SEVERELY TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE SHEAR INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER NORMAN MOVES INLAND... AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/14. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD HEADING THROUGH DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 24.4N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 25.6N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 26.2N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:40 UTC