Hurricane MIRIAM
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HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2012
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 2 13 36
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 10 29 36
TROPICAL STORM X 1 6 19 58 49 27
HURRICANE 99 99 94 80 30 9 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 7 29 43 24 8 1
HUR CAT 2 6 26 35 23 5 1 X
HUR CAT 3 74 52 25 12 2 X X
HUR CAT 4 19 13 5 3 X X X
HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 110KT 105KT 95KT 85KT 65KT 50KT 35KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLA CLARION 34 85 11(96) 1(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
ISLA CLARION 50 21 37(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
ISLA CLARION 64 3 25(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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