ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012 200 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LAST BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATED AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. A 1708 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW WIND VECTORS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION HAS LIKELY BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 30 KT. SUBSEQUENTLY...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND A SURROUNDING STABLE AIR MASS. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD IN THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND STEERING FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 22.1N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 22.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 21.7N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 21.4N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.2N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:38 UTC