Tropical Depression TWELVE-E
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS...
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO
BE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY
OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION
IS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN
ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT
SHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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