Tropical Storm KRISTY
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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 7 31 49 49
TROP DEPRESSION 8 12 12 31 40 35 34
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 68 54 27 16 16
HURRICANE 3 10 18 9 2 X 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 9 15 7 2 X 1
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 1 X X X
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 20KT 20KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULICAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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