ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012 A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12H OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN OVER COLD WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6...ALTHOUGH A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION TURNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED SOLELY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS A BIT WEST OF THAT AID. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 25.3N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 25.9N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC