ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012 CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAS BEEN ON A GRADUAL DECLINE...WITH THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME SUGGESTION RECENTLY ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING OVER RATHER COOL WATERS AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. KRISTY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THEN MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 23.7N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 24.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 25.6N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 26.4N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 27.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC