ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 15 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTELY SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD...AND THOSE DATA WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST 34-KT WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.3N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 24.6N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 26.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:29 UTC