ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 0300 UTC TUE AUG 28 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 2 9 TROP DEPRESSION 3 2 3 2 2 11 30 TROPICAL STORM 91 64 49 42 36 54 51 HURRICANE 6 34 48 56 61 33 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 30 38 39 40 25 9 HUR CAT 2 1 3 7 11 15 6 1 HUR CAT 3 X 1 3 5 6 2 X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 60KT 65KT 70KT 75KT 65KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 6( 6) 24(30) 9(39) 7(46) 1(47) 2(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 16(44) 5(49) X(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 3(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC