ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012 ALTHOUGH ILEANA IS OVER WATERS NEAR 22C...A SMALL AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER. A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING ILEANA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER EVEN COLDER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST SHOULD CAUSE ILEANA TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS NOW MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. ILEANA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 23.1N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 23.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 22.8N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 22.1N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:28 UTC