Hurricane ILEANA

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HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE
IS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...ARE
4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT ILEANA HAS REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS APPROACHING LOWER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
AT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT ILEANA
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 
ILEANA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS ILEANA TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
THAT ILEANA WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION IS CORRECT...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW
BY THAT TIME PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 19.1N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  31/0000Z 20.8N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  31/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 23.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0000Z 25.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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