ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012 DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED...LEAVING THE CENTER OF HECTOR EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN. AS THIS OCCURRED...THE CYCLONE MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT HECTOR WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AS HECTOR WEAKENS...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:24 UTC