Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HECTOR HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WEAKENED
AND BEEN PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  ALTHOUGH
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BECAUSE A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THIS TIME...HECTOR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS..HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.
 
AS THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT IT WAS
LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. RECENT CENTER
FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER OR
270/5 KT.  AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENS...A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT.  THE ECMWF AND GFDL
MODELS DEPICT A SHARPER AND FASTER NORTHWARD TURN IN 36-48 HOURS
THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...CLOSE TO THE HFIP
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 18.0N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 18.0N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 18.2N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 20.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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