Tropical Storm GILMA
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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GILMA HAS COMPLETELY WITHERED AWAY
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
FALLING QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GILMA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER COLD WATER AND IN A RELATIVELY STRONG
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEGENERATE
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES
THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT
LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
GILMA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE
SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 0552 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 20.0N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.6N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 21.8N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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