ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012 DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF GILMA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GILMA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE COLDER WATER AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO TAKE THEIR TOLL. GILMA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST. GILMA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/4 KT. GILMA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RETREATS EASTWARD. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.4N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.1N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 21.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:23 UTC