ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012 FABIO IS SPINNING DOWN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 22C. ONLY A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL...AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 40 KT. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS APPEAR TO BE DECOUPLING DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER WATERS AHEAD AND A DRY AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 23.6N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 25.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 26.5N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC