Hurricane FABIO
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
FABIO IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -50 C OR COLDER. USING DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER...AS IT WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. FABIO SHOULD
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 1-2 DAYS AND DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.
CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS TAKING PLACE...AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE 285/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING NEAR
AND OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CREATE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD WITH
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.6N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.8N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.8N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z 26.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN