ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012 FABIO CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THE BAND IS LONG ENOUGH FOR TAFB AND SAB TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0. THE WINDS ARE THEREFORE RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF 290/9 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...WITH FABIO EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL ENVELOPE IS GENERALLY BOUNDED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TO THE EAST AND THE GFS AND HWRF FARTHER WEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST... WHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FABIO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR...HOWEVER...AND FABIO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS A TIGHT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARD COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT THE UPPER BOUND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.2N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.6N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.4N 113.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC