ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012 THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND AN 1121 UTC SSMI PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING A NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD RING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THAT BASIS. A LARGE AND PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS STEERING FABIO ON A WESTWARD COURSE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8 KT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN HALF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF CUT-OFF LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST. UNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DANIEL AND EMILIA...FABIO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 5...INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXHIBITS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR AN INTENSE STORM...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FABIO SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND BE OVER 22-23C WATER BY DAY 5...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONGER-RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST UNDER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 13.6N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC