ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012 THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING TO BECOME DETACHED...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE VERY TIGHT AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN FACT...THAT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 15.0N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 15.0N 153.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC