ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012 CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED RECENTLY AS EMILIA MOVED OVER A TONGUE OF RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. EMILIA HAS NOT WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE EMILIA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER WATERS. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BACK OVER COOL WATERS ON SUNDAY... AND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. EMILIA IS A SHALLOW CYCLONE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC