ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF EMILIA IS 280/11 KT. THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS FINALLY OCCURRED AND EMILIA REMAINS ON TRACK. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA MAINTAINING THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT WARMING OF THE INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED EMILIA WAS AN ANNULAR HURRICANE AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO POSSESS A WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. EMILIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF OF A NARROW SEA-SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C WATERS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THOSE COOLER WATERS...IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.5N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.3N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 17.1N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 17.5N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0600Z 17.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC