ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTRAL FEATURES BECAME A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS DERIVED FROM SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS BY TAFB AND SAB HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT. EMILIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING IMPEDED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS/LGEM AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285/9. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A CONTINUED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC