ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012 THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM HURRICANE DANIEL. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN ON MICROWAVE DATA. ASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW FROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. WEAKENING SHOULD START IN ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS THE BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL TRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC