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Tropical Storm EMILIA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012
 
THE INNER CORE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW
PATTERNS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
CYCLONE GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN MODEST EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO
ITS EAST AND THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL
LOCATED TO ITS WEST. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN...UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO 
INCREASE AND ARE NOW AT T3.0/45 KT. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE EMILIA HAS
BEEN WOBBLING ALMOST DUE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. TRENDING
THROUGH THESE WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE
MOTION OF 285/12 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS STILL PLACES THE INITIAL POSITION SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD.
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ONLY GRADUALLY TURN EMILIA WESTWARD AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MASSIVE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
BETWEEN THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW...WHICH WOULD
GENERALLY FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING A 66 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 30-KT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL PINCHING EFFECT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER 24
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE AS DANIEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WEAKEN AND NO LONGER
IMPINGES ON EMILIA. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
EMILIA TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD
NOT SURPRISE ME IF EMILIA BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT
TIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 10.7N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 11.4N 106.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 12.1N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 12.8N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 13.5N 113.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 15.7N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 16.5N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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