ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012 DANIEL IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS MORNING. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS...WHICH IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF DANIEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.6/37 KT. DANIEL SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DANIEL WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 15.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 14.8N 157.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC