ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012 THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO SHRINK AND WARM. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND THE OBJECTIVE SCHEME FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 45 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE NUMBERS... THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 55 KT. DANIEL IS MOVING ACROSS A SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 24C...BUT THE STORM WILL ACTUALLY BE REACHING SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THE FARTHER WEST IT MOVES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD CURB ANY RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY MIRRORS THE GRADUAL DECAY SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...OR 270/14 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...A TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FAVORED. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.3N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 15.2N 146.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC