ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD A LITTLE...TO 80 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. DANIEL MOVED OVER A SLIGHT RIDGE IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT STRENGTHENING EPISODE. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OF 120W LONGITUDE...DANIEL WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WESTWARD...OR 270/10. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.6N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 14.8N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.2N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 15.3N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC