ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012 DANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX GIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL. IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. DANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 280/11. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC