ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012 A 0930Z AMSU PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN SHOWING THE LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE AND INDICATED THAT A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR RELAXING A BIT WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 60 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE HWRF. AFTER THAT TIME...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO...AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.2N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.6N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.0N 114.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.3N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.5N 118.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:14 UTC