Tropical Storm CARLOTTA
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TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
0900 UTC THU JUN 14 2012
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 6 7 32 41
TROP DEPRESSION 7 6 6 16 15 29 26
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 56 46 54 34 30
HURRICANE 3 17 38 32 24 5 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 3 15 30 22 18 5 3
HUR CAT 2 X 2 5 7 4 X X
HUR CAT 3 X X 2 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 65KT 70KT 55KT 50KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 3(19)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 3(24)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 21(29) 4(33) X(33)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 18(26) 18(44) 3(47) 1(48)
P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17)
P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
P ANGEL 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 19(57) 6(63) 2(65) 2(67)
P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
HUATULCO 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) 20(56) 6(62) 2(64) 2(66)
HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) 1(21)
HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
TAPACHULA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11)
P SAN JOSE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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