Tropical Storm BUD
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TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
2100 UTC TUE MAY 22 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 3 19 30
TROP DEPRESSION 13 8 8 4 12 31 31
TROPICAL STORM 85 78 66 48 58 43 37
HURRICANE 2 13 25 48 27 7 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 11 20 35 21 6 3
HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 9 4 1 X
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 4 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 60KT 45KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 4(12)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 6(20)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 6(27) 13(40)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 6(24) 14(38)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 6(22)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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