Hurricane BUD

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
500 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
...BUD REMAINS JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.7N 106.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST.  BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST LATE FRIDAY.
 
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING...AND BUD COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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