Hurricane BUD

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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