ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. AS BUD APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO. THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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