Tropical Storm BUD

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TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012
 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO AN ELONGATED
SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  TWO SEPARATE CIRA AMSU ESTIMATES OF WIND
RADII FROM THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WIND FIELD
IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
 
BUD HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 325/6 KT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE
CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN CAUSE
BUD TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT MOST CLOSELY APPROACHES
THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE LEANS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ON DAYS 4 AND 5...A
SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF IS FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOWN BY
THE GFDL AND HWRF.
 
BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 48
HOURS OR SO...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C.  AFTER 48 HOURS...A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR...ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR...WARM
200/250 MB TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER SSTS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
WEAKENING.  IN FACT...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING
THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM MODEL.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD.  BUD IS GROWING IN SIZE...AND EVEN IF
THE CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE COAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE JALISCO...
COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN COASTS ON SATURDAY.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 16.7N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.8N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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