ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012 800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012 THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BUD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A 2243 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOR HAVE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE LACK OF CHANGE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. IT REMAINS A BIT PUZZLING AS TO WHY BUD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE CURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER BUD THAN WHAT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST. EVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING EVEN LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. AS BUD APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL TIMES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. BUD SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN 24-48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 107W AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 72-120 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD COME TO A HALT AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A PRESUMABLY WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS WEST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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